Uncle Sean's Update - 11/1/24

​Happy Friday!!!
 
🎃 Hopefully everyone had a joyful Halloween this week!!!  Hard to believe it is already November; and there is an election coming up (get out there and vote if you haven’t already); an FOMC meeting next week; and The Roundup Conference by FedFis – but first, here is the Uncle Sean Update for 11/1/24:
 
Jumping straight into some fresh economic data… 🤓🤠
 

• Third Quarter 2024 GDP (advanced estimate) came in at 2.8% for 3rd Quarter versus an estimate of 3.1% and down from 3.0% last quarter.  CNBC has a good summary.
  • 👉 Keep in mind that this is the advance estimate….  The BEA always releases two estimates of quarterly GDP, known as the advance and preliminary estimates, in the two months before the release of the final number.

 

• PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation metric) came in at 2.1% for September (a 3 1/2 year low), closing in on the Fed target level of 2% and down from 2.3% in August.  HOWEVER….  Core PCE inflation continues to prove sticky (LOL) at 2.7%.
  • 👀 Core PCE trend – 2.7% May, 2.6% Jun, 2.7% Jul, 2.7% Aug, 2.7% Sep…  Yep – stickier than molasses!

 

• The BLS October Jobs Report comes in at 12K versus 100K estimate with healthcare and government leading job creation (+52K and +40K respectively) with several sectors reporting modest job losses; unemployment remained at 4.1%; and average hourly earnings continues to outpace inflation at 4.0% YoY increase.  Aug / Sept jobs revised down (which has been the trend lately) by -81K and -31K respectively. NBC has a pretty good summary.
  • 👉 As with the GDP estimate, keep in mind that the Jobs Report is always revised for two months following the initial estimates as more data becomes available.  Here is the 2024 BLS Revision History for more detail as this remains a hot topic 🔥 in many economic discussions.

 

• Meanwhile, the 10YR Treasury yield has jumped up to 4.36% (source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y - 11/1/24) which is a 4-month high (and up almost 20% since 9/16 close of 3.64%) despite FOMC rate cuts and what appears to be a cooling economy…???  Yes, I know…  It’s confusing to me too and seems completely bassackwards…  🤷‍♂️😕

 
Okay – back to the rest of the Update:
 

• FirstSun (Sunflower Bank) and HomeStreet failed to meet the necessary regulatory approvals and have been asked to withdraw their merger applications…  🤔  “We are disappointed that the regulators are unwilling to grant the regulatory approvals necessary for the merger to proceed,” stated Mark Mason, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of HomeStreet. “Importantly, HomeStreet has been advised by its regulators that there were no regulatory concerns specifically related to HomeStreet that would have prevented approval of the merger.”
  • Yessir - That’s the merger equivalent of stating, “I’m not saying it’s your fault, but it sure ain’t mine!” 😅

 

• Following recent announcements of international expansion and a $100M bump in their credit facility, DailyPay (EWA) has launched Internation Remittances “powered by the financial technology solution ReadyRemit by Brightwell and Visa Direct.” (bold emphasis added by Uncle Sean)

 

• 💪 ZSuite Tech continues is trek across America – this week, BankNewport launches ZEscrow for Rhode Island business.
  • I swear they are going to run out of banks soon!  LOL!!!  The Team at ZSuite Tech is on a roll! 🚀

 

• Spruce by H&R Block expands its partnership with Atomic by integrating Atomic’s PayLink Switch alongside Atomic's Deposit solution to “streamline the flow of money into and out of consumers’ accounts, providing a comprehensive solution for managing direct deposits and switching payments to Spruce.”

 

• First Bank of the Lake (FDIC 26960; total assets $1.5B) leans into embedded finance by partnering with Infinant and utilizing Infinant’s Interlace Platform to power digital and embedded banking channels within the bank without core replacement.  Nice!!!! 🤘

 

• dash.fi partners with Episode Six (E6) to launch its Net 60 term business charge card powered by E6.

 

• Marqeta announced the launch of Marqeta Flex (an embedded BNPL solution) to allow personalized BNPL options for consumers (at point of need) directly into payment apps and wallets.  Check it out (no pun intended 😊) at Marqeta Flex.

 

• Synchrony (NYSE: SYF; FDIC 27314; total assets $112B) and JCPenney extend their nearly 25-year partnership; and announce the addition of Synchrony Pay Later, a buy now, pay later financing option, to be offered at JCPenney to meet customer needs, especially in JCPenney's fine jewelry business. 

 

• Pinwheel partners with Terafina/Candescent to bring “Pinwheel's direct deposit switching solution to Terafina's/Candescent's bank and credit union customers, providing them with a streamlined and unified account opening experience across digital and in-person channels.”

 

• Some personnel moves:
  • Revio Insight names John Wallace as VP of Sales – congrats, John!!!  With Brian Bauer, Sanjay Bhaskar, and now John Wallace – this is a team to watch! 💥
  • Moneygram appoints Anthony Soohoo as CEO.

 

• Notable FinTech funding for the week:
  • Tilled (embedded payments) raised $12.5M in new capital.
  • Melio (B2B payments) raised $150M in Series E funding round at a $2B valuation! 🦄

 
 
Random Uncle Sean stuff:

• HAPPY BIRTHDAY to our baby girl Claire this weekend!!!!  Mom and Dad love you!!! ❤️  And this birthday officially marks the bittersweet moment of no more teenagers left in the Mayo clan!  What a wild ride it’s been!!! 🥲😊 
• ⏰ DON’T FORGET – the Time Change is this weekend as we “fall back” and gain an extra hour of sleep!!! 💤  I need it!!!!
• The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up their eighth World Series Championship by overcoming a 5-run deficit over the Yankees for a 7-6 win in Game 5.  ESPN has a pretty cool write-up.

• Here we go – the Dad / Bad Jokes:
  • I do crunches 2X per day…  Captain in the morning and Nestle in the evening! 😊
  • I hear people say “if you want loyalty, get a dog,” but I’m fairly positive that my dog would abandon me in a dark alley for a three-day old pizza crust, so maybe loyalty has layers… 🐶😅
  • So my bank just added a new service that sends me a text message with my bank balance when I ask.  It’s kind of cool, but I wish they wouldn’t add “LOL” at the end… 😂🤣
  • “Apparently” stress balls are not supposed to be thrown directly at the person stressing you out….  Who knew??? 🤷‍♂️
  • And lastly….  I never make the same mistake twice…  I typically go for five or six times in a row – you know, just to be sure! 😉🤠

 
 
Have a GREAT weekend and please stay safe!!!
 
Uncle Sean
 
 
Sometimes known as Sean Mayo – contact me directly for scope and pricing of custom reports / analysis projects at [email protected] | 214-604-6961 – or you can contact FedFis Sales Team at 512-960-0911 | [email protected] #FedFisHasTheData FedFis
 
FedFis, LLC disclaimer – The views and opinions of Uncle Sean are of his own and may not necessarily represent the views, endorsements, and/or opinions of FedFis, LLC – we all know he’s a little bit different; but that’s why we love him.