Uncle Sean's Update - 3/13/26

Happy Friday the 13th 🐈‍⬛😬!!!
 
Here is the Uncle Sean Update for 3/13/26 (subscribe here for free):
 
Quite a few macroeconomic updates this week (and you know how I love to completely geek out on econ data 🤓):
 

• First up was the BLS Feb CPI Report that came in exactly as expected at 2.4% YoY and 0.3% for the month with Core CPI at 2.5% YoY and 0.2% for the month. A positive note was Rent increase (included as a component of Shelter) was only 0.1% which was the smallest monthly increase since Jan 2021.

 

• Next up was the BLS Jan PCE Report that came in largely as expected with YoY PCE at 2.8% (Dec was 2.9%) and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation - Core PCE at 3.1% (Dec was 3.0%).  Monthly PCE came in at 0.3% (Dec was 0.4%) and Core PCE was 0.4% (Dec was 0.4%).
  • Again, nothing too surprising here as inflation still remains sticky (hello healthcare ☹️) and above the Fed 2% long-range target, but largely flat.  Some good news is personal income increased and the personal savings rate bumped back up to 4.5% (Dec was revised up to 4.0% - originally was a dismal 3.6%).

 

• And finally was the BLS GDP (second estimate) 4Q2025 which was revised down somewhat materially in aggregate from 1.4% to 0.7% (but the specific category revisions were fairly light).  I’m not totally surprised by this considering the Government shutdown (2 months during 4Q) – so let’s break down the specific components of the data revisions (beginning on pg 9 of the GDP link provided):
  • Consumer Spending was revised down slightly to 1.33% from 1.58% (3Q was 2.34%) – thankfully, the consumer is still spending.
  • Business Investment was revised down slightly to 0.57% from 0.66% (3Q was 0.03%)
  • Government Spending was revised down slightly to -1.03% from -0.90% (3Q was +0.39%) with Federal down to -1.16% from -1.15% (3Q was +0.17%) and State was down to +0.13% from +0.25% (3Q was 0.21%)
    • The BEA estimated that the government shutdown from Oct 1 – Nov 12 likely resulted in a subtraction of “about 1.0 percentage point from real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.”
  • Exports were revised down slightly to -0.36% from -0.10% (3Q was +1.00%) and Imports were down to 0.15% from 0.18% (3Q was +0.62%)
    • The third and final estimate of 4Q2025 GDP is scheduled for April 9th; and the first advanced estimate of 1Q2026 GDP is scheduled for April 30th (BLS Release Schedule).

 

• Uncle Sean’s thoughts (not that anyone asked 😊)… 
  • All of this is before the Iran war (Feb 28) and subsequent / significant jump in gas prices, which can eventually have a broader effect on other Core price increases through freight / transit costs and supply chain disruptions if the conflict lingers on and / or expands in scope.  In an attempt to mitigate that inflationary sprawl, the IEA has released a record 400M barrels of oil reserves which included 172M barrels directly from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
  • Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury Yield is back over 4.25% from 3.96% on Feb 27.
  • Next FOMC meeting to vote on interest rates is next week, March 17-18 and includes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP - i.e. “dot plot”).  I broke my crystal ball many years ago, but here is what I’m currently thinking:
    • Guessing the Fed will likely take a “wait and see” approach on rates.
    • I am expecting a wide range of SEP forecasts from the FOMC as members may likely have different views (which is healthy and appropriate for a committee) on how long the war in Iran will last and what impact that may have on price stability and maximum employment.
    • Coming into 2026, I was optimistic from an economic standpoint (reasons being: regulatory reform, tax stimulus, AI boom including datacenter infrastructure projects, and a clearer picture surrounding impact of tariffs).  To be precise, I am still optimistic as most of the positive indicators still remain in play, but the slight skepticism (for me anyway) is directly attributed to the uncertainty on how long the conflict in the Middle East continues.
    • It’s complicated…  A new war in the Middle East, sticky inflation data, and a difficult employment picture is probably not what incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had on his bingo card. 🤷‍♂️  Hopefully a clearer macroeconomic picture develops prior to his first FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17.

 
 
Back to the rest of the Update:
 

• And another bank charter application! 👏  This week it is Upstart (Nasdaq: UPST) announcing their application to the OCC, FDIC, and Federal Reserve to establish an FDIC-insured national bank, Upstart Bank, N.A.

 

• 👉 Autobooks makes headlines this week by announcing their acquisition of MinuteLender, adding small business lending to the Autobooks platform complimenting their existing payments, accounting, and credit solution.
  • This Autobooks blog post provides a more detailed review of the MinuteLender acquisition describing their new and powerful closed-loop ecosystem for small businesses built for modern banking. 💪

 

• 👀 And another credit union acquisition of a bank.  Landmark Credit Union (charter 66751; total assets $7.5B) to acquire American National Bank - Fox Cities (FDIC 33812; total assets $419M).  This is a fairly stereotypical scenario of a much larger CU acquiring a smaller bank with the goal of market expansion and access to some valuable commercial loans (total loans of $327.6M have a 53.24% concentration of owner occupied commercial RE).
  • This is the 3rd announced (whole-bank transaction) CU acquisition of a bank so far in 2026 (source: FedFis).

 

• Affiniti (fintech platform for SMB’s banking and payments solutions) announced a financing agreement with Column N.A. (FDIC 58224; total assets $850M) for the bank to commit “funding to accelerate the expansion of Affiniti’s card product…” as Affiniti scales its technology platform.  “As Affiniti takes its growth to the next stage, Column will provide committed balance sheet funding to support that growth, allowing the team to focus on product development and partner acquisition.”

 

• Thredd (AI-based issuer processor platform) announced a partnership with Cross River Bank to accelerate the entry of international fintech companies into the United States.
  • The partnership already has its first client to go live under the partnership with B4B Payments - A Banking Circle Group Company, showing how a strong ecosystem approach can streamline compliance and accelerate market entry (in the USA, the B4B Payments Visa® prepaid card is issued by Cross River Bank).

 

• Empower FCU (charter 3025; total assets $4.2B) expands its existing relationship with Alkami by selecting MANTL for its Onboarding and Account Opening Solution.

 

• Vestwell (ESA, ABLE savings, and financial literacy platform) selected to power Pennsylvania's ABLE Disability Savings Program.  PA ABLE (Achieving a Better Life Experience) is “the 21st ABLE program powered by Vestwell’s modern, saver-focused platform…”  Very nice!!! 👍

 

• Lastly, this should be on everyone’s radar but it is worth repeating that Bank regulators are warning of increased cyber risk from Iran war.  Additionally, a coalition of threat information groups warned that state-sponsored groups, hacktivists and criminal groups are likely to target critical infrastructure sites in the U.S. using various tactics, including spear-phishing or stolen credentials.  Stay diligent!!!

 

• Some personnel moves:
  • Intranet Connections bulks up their talent bench by appointing Kal K. Sahota as Chief Growth Officer and David Daniel as Director of Sales.

 

• Notable FinTech funding for the week:
  • Stake (renter network with cash back rewards, credit building, and banking app – Stake Visa debit card is issued by Transpecos Banks) raised $8M in capital consisting of undisclosed debt and equity; and announced the acquisition of Lighthouse and its subsidiary UMoveFree.

 
 
Random Uncle Sean stuff:

• Okay – it’s a beautiful day and I’m already about 3 hours behind schedule…  So let’s wrap this up and jump straight to the good stuff - the Dad / Bad Jokes to brighten up your Friday:
  • The worst time to have a heart attack is during a game of charades… 😲😅
  • A recent study found that people who go fishing catch more fish than those who don’t go fishing…  Sounds legit to me! 🎣😉
  • Collectively, we need to stop any references to ‘acting like an adult.’  Have you seen most adults lately?  That is horrible advice!!! 🤠
  • People found guilty of not using punctuation deserve the longest sentence possible… 🤔😄
  • I asked Aunt Patty if she would love me if I was fat and ugly….  “Yes, I do” wasn’t exactly the response I was looking for!!! 😂🤣😜

 
 
Have a GREAT weekend and please stay safe!
 
Uncle Sean
 
Sometimes known as Sean Mayo – contact me directly for scope and pricing of custom reports / analysis projects at [email protected] | 214-604-6961 – or you can contact FedFis Sales Team at 512-960-0911 | [email protected] #FedFisHasTheData FedFis
 
FedFis, LLC disclaimer – The views and opinions of Uncle Sean are of his own and may not necessarily represent the views, endorsements, and/or opinions of FedFis, LLC and its affiliates – we all know he’s a little bit different; but that’s why we love him.